POSITIVE MARKET DYNAMICS
Iran's economy is in good shape. Its nominal gross domestic product (at market price) is forecast to grow by around 12% annually, reaching a nominal GDP of USD 665 billion in 2020. A Inflation has been halved since 2013 to a 25-year low of around 10%. These and other positive economic indicators explain why Goldman Sachs has identified Iran as having one of the highest growth potentials outside the BRIC nations. The outlook for healthcare is particularly rosy. Spending is forecasted to grow at a similar rate to GDP, reaching nearly USD 40 billion (6% of overall spending) in 2020, driven by rising Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) expenditure. Iran's population is also on the up. By 2020 it will have 84.2 million inhabitants – more than Germany. Roughly 30% will be aged 19 or under, 60% aged 20 to 59 and 10% aged over 60. This represents a growing customer base for pharmaceutical products, with babyboomers of the 1980s now entering the workforce and fueling out-of-pocket spending. In addition, the proportionally high urban population enjoys good access to basic healthcare. In rural areas access is growing due to government reforms, further boosting potential. More than 90% of the population is covered by one of the four government-run health insurers. As a result, the Iranian pharmaceuticals market – valued by BMI Research at USD 1.9 billion in 2015 – is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6%. By 2025, it will be the fourth largest in the Middle East and North Africa, after Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
A IRAN’S GROWING MARKET OFFERS HUGE BUSINESS POTENTIAL In the next few years, Iran's rising GDP and customer base are likely to significantly increase demand for pharmaceutical products.
From its well-educated workforce to its dynamic competitive landscape, the Iranian pharmaceutical market has much to offer new entrants.
Development of pharmaceutical sales, GDP, healthcare spending, and population
Reference: January 2017 ROLAND BERGER